A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
